The White Sox return to US Cellular Field Monday to start a three game series with the New York Yankees.  After a promising start to the road trip in Toronto the Sox fell flat in Kansas City and were swept, finishing the trip at 3-4.
The Yankees are coming off a successful homestand where they went 5-2 and won series against the Rangers and the Red Sox.  Luckily for the White Sox the Tigers lost two out of three to the Orioles at home and the Sox remain in 1st Place in the AL Central by a game and a half.  The Yankees lead is back up to five games in the AL East over Tampa Bay and six games over Baltimore.

Pitching Matchups

Game one of the series will matchup Gavin Floyd (9-9, 4.43 ERA) against Freddy Garcia (7-5, 4.68 ERA).  Garcia returns to US Cellular Field where he spent 5 seasons pitching for the White Sox.  In his 2nd season with the Yankees Freddy is about what you would expect.  He isn’t going to overpower anyone anymore and instead relies on his breaking balls and off-speed pitches to get outs.  His ERA is approaching 5.00 and his WHIP is over 1.30 so he is hittable.  Garcia has been solid recently.  He hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in his last 5 starts.  Over that span he is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA with 22 strikeouts against just 5 walks in 31 innings.  Opponents are hitting .248 off him over that span but have hit 5 home runs.
Garcia will be making his 68th career start at US Cellular Field and is 27-18 lifetime with a 4.47 ERA.  Paul Konerko is 10-29 (.345) off Freddy with 4 home runs.  On the flip side Adam Dunn is 0-11 with 6 strikeouts and Kevin Youkilis is just 3-17 (.176) with a homer against Sweaty Freddy.
As for Gavin Floyd, he has been very Gavin Floyd lately.  Since facing the Yankees back on June 1st Floyd is 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 6 starts.  However over that time he has 19 walks and 4 hit batters in 38.2 innings and has a WHIP of 1.54.  He has benefited from 8 double plays the Sox defense has turned behind him.  He seems to have leveled off, no really strong games but no horrible games either.  Floyd seems to be 6 innings and 3-4 runs, but keeps you in the game.  As for that June 1st start against the Bronx Bombers it was not one of his better ones.

Floyd went just 5.1 innings and gave up 4 runs on 8 hits but also walked 5 batters and gave up a pair of home runs.  Lifetime against the Yankees Floyd is 2-3 with a very high 6.07 ERA in 8 appearances (7 starts).  Five current Yankees with at least 10 at bats against Floyd are hitting better than .300 off him.  Those five are Ichiro (15-39, .385 2 HRs), Granderson (11-36, .306 1 HR), Jeter (8-23, .348), Russell Martin (4-13, .308 1 HR), and Raul Ibanez (5-11, .455 3 HRs).  Eric Chavez also has 2 home runs off Floyd in 7 at bats.  In total the current Yankee’s are hitting .306 with 12 home runs off Gavin Floyd.
Game two will see Francisco Liriano (4-10, 5.22 ERA) taking on Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.76 ERA).  Nova’s last 5 starts have alternated being good and bad.  Unfortunately for the White Sox he is coming off a start that was not so good, giving up 4 runs on 7 hits with 4 walks and just 2 strikeouts in 5.2 innings to the Rangers but getting a no-decision.  Nova faced the Sox back in late June and pitched well holding them to just 1 run over 7.1 innings but getting a no decision in a game the Sox eventually won late.
For his career Nova has dominated the Sox.  In 4 starts he is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA.  He has allowed just 4 runs in 27 innings and has a very solid 1.037 WHIP.  He has also struck out 25 batters and issued only 6 walks.  Paul Konerko (5-11, .455) and Alejandro De Aza (5-7, .714 1 HR) have had the most success off Nova, while AJ (.100), Alexei (.182) and Dunn (0-7, 2K’s) have struggled.
For the Sox, Francisco Liriano is coming off his first career White Sox victory.  He pitched 6.1 strong innings in Toronto giving up 2 runs on just 3 hits and struck out 6.  It was an important bounce back performance for Liriano after he was roughed up in his previous start against the A’s.  Since joining the Sox Francisco is 1-0 with a 4.79 ERA in 4 starts.  However he has struck out 23 batters in 20.2 innings and opponents are hitting just .234 off him.  He has only allowed more than 2 runs in one start.  Liriano’s only start against the Yankees this year came back in April and it did not go well.  He lasted just 2.1 innings giving up 5 runs on 7 hits and issued 4 walks.  Lifetime against the Yanks Liriano is 1-4 with a 4.02 ERA in 8 appearances (7 starts).  Ichiro (8-26, .308) and Jeter (7-22, .318 1 HR) have had the most success against Francisco while Granderson (6-29, .207 1 HR), Swisher (6-26, .231) and Teixeira (4-24, .167 1 HR) have struggled against him.  In 213 at bats current Yankees are hitting .244 against Liriano with 5 home runs.
The finale of the series on Wednesday will match Chris Sale (14-4, 2.72 ERA) and Phil Hughes (12-10, 4.23 ERA).  Hughes is having a fairly solid season for the Yankees but can be prone to a blow up here and there.  He has four starts this season where he has allowed six or more earned runs but he also has 13 starts where he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.  In his last three starts Hughes has given up 15 runs (11 Earned) in 15.1 innings and opponents are hitting .309 off him.  He will not walk many as he has issued just 33 BBs in almost 143 innings.  However he is prone to giving up the long ball, as he has given up the second most homers (28) in the American League.  Hughes defeated the Sox back in April at Yankee Stadium going 8 innings and giving up 2 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts.  He has also handled the Sox throughout his career, going 3-1 with a minute 1.13 ERA in 9 appearances (5 starts).  His WHIP is 0.781 all-time against the Sox.  Only Alex Rios (.429) is hitting above .300 off Phil Hughes and only Kevin Youkilis and DeWayne Wise have hit homers against him (1 each).
Chris Sale will look to bounce back from a tough start against the Royals where he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits over 6.2 innings.  He also walked 4 batters for just the third time all year.  The other number that stands out is that Sale has allowed 2 home runs in each of his last three starts, when he had allowed just 7 homers all season up to that point.  This will be the Yankees first look at Sale as a starting pitcher.  In 3 relief appearances against the Yankees Sale has allowed just 1 hit and 2 walks to go along with 5 strikeouts in 3.1 innings.  Ichiro is the only Yankee with more than 2 plate appearances against Sale and he is just 2-8 lifetime.  This could be a good matchup for Sale against the Yankees lefties/switch hitters.

Keys to the Series

Forget the Royals: The Sox were flying high heading to Kansas City after having won their first series in Toronto in 6 years.  Instead of building on that momentum the Sox did what they usually do against the Royals, nothing.  The sweep at the hands of lowly Kansas City should light a fire under their collective behinds.  It was just the second time all year the Sox were swept and the last time it happened they came home and swept the Twins and then went to Texas and won 2 out of three.  They need to take the same mentality they had after being swept in Detroit and if they do they should have success.
Don’t let the pinstripes fool you: Despite the lifetime numbers against the Sox that Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes have compiled, they are very hittable.  They have ERA’s in the mid 4.00’s for a reason.  The Sox need to get over whatever Voodoo Hex these two pitchers have on them.  The last series in KC was a prime example of pitchers being in the Sox’s head.  Once again they struggled against pitchers that the rest of the league doesn’t have problems with.  While Nova and Hughes are better than Chen and Guthrie, they are not Hall of Famers.  Don’t keep making them look like they are.  Both of those guys have allowed over 20 home runs this year and rank among the tops in the league in that category.  Get some men on base and then play long ball, because let’s face it, that has been the plan lately.

Who’s pen is mightier?: The Sox and Yankees both have pretty strong bullpens.  The key is going to be whichever team can hand a lead over to their pen.  The Sox have struggled to get out to and maintain a lead lately.  They have been coming from behind or playing dead even and as a result have lost quite a few games in the late innings.  If they expect to come from behind against the Yankees bullpen, they are going to be in trouble.  Soriano has filled in nicely for the injured Mariano Rivera and has converted 31-33 save opportunities.  Boone Logan and Clay Rapada have been very solid lefties and David Robertson continues to strikeout over 12 batters per 9 innings.  The Yankee pen has also combined to allow only 20% of inherited runners to score this year.  The Sox were able to come back on the Yankees back in June and steal a win, but don’t count on that happening again.

Outlook

The Sox have as good a chance to win this series as anyone.  They avoid facing Hiroki Kuroda and CC Sabathia and are playing at home, however they have struggled in the past against Hughes and Nova.  It really is anyone’s guess but the Sox have seemed to rise to the level of their opponents, especially when playing at home.  I’m hoping they can take two out of three and keep those Yankee fans that travel to US Cellular from making too much noise.