The White Sox head into Detroit this weekend for what is certainly their biggest series to date in this 2012 campaign.  The Sox can put some considerable distance between themselves and the Tigers or Detroit can tighten things up and set up a one month scramble to the finish.

Both teams are coming off of tough road series; the White Sox lost 3 of 4 in Baltimore and the Tigers were swept in Kansas City by those pesky Royals.  The team that can better shake off the last series and focus on the task at hand will be the team that comes out on top.  Without any further buildup let’s check out the matchups for the “Showdown in Motown” (You gotta say it in a Don King voice).

Pitching Matchups

The first game of the series the Sox will send Jake Peavy (9-9, 3.09 ERA) against Doug Fister (7-8, 3.67 ERA).  Fister will be making his first start since August 19th when he was roughed up by the Orioles giving up 7 runs in 3.2 innings.  He was skipped the next time through the rotation while dealing with a groin injury but is set to return on Friday.

Before that last start Fister had been pitching his best baseball of the year going 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in the previous 4 starts.  For the Sox it will be their first look at Fister in a Tigers uniform.  He has made 4 career starts against the Sox but those came when he was a member of the Seattle Mariners.  In those 4 starts Fister was 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA.

Fister was a major factor for the Tigers down the stretch last season and helped pitch them into the ALCS giving them 5 innings of 1 run ball on short rest in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Yankees.  This year Fister has battled injuries but showed signs of the last year’s form before suffering the groin injury.  Alex Rios will be happy to see Fister on the mound as he is 7-for-8 lifetime against the tall right hander.  Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez, who were both hot in the Baltimore series, are 3-for-10 lifetime against him.

Peavy was moved back from his scheduled start in the Orioles season to face Detroit.  The extra rest should benefit Peavy, who has had a pretty heavy work load this season.  Peavy was also battling an eye infection the last few days.  There is no doubt Peavy will be out ‘bulldogging’ and battling on the mound in a big series.

This will be Peavy’s 5th start against the Tigers this year.  In the previous 4 starts Peavy is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.125.  In his career Peavy has made 4 starts and is 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00.  Only Prince Fielder has had good success against Jake, hitting .333 (9-27).  As a team current Tigers batters are hitting .240 with 3 home runs all time against Peavy.

The middle game will feature Francisco Liriano (5-10, 5.06 ERA) and Max Scherzer (14-6, 4.13 ERA).  For the Tigers, Scherzer is pitching the best baseball of his young career.  He is 4-0 in his last four starts with a 1.33 ERA and has struck out 35 batters in 27 innings.  Opponents are hitting just .216 off Scherzer during that stretch.  He leads the American League with 11.347 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Throughout his career Scherzer is prone to having a very poor outing after looking like he is finally putting things together, so the Sox can hope for that.  Scherzer has faced the Sox twice this season and is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA while he has allowed 3 homers in just 17 innings, but he has also struck out 23.  In his career, Scherzer has handled the Sox pretty well despite a 3-4 record.  His lifetime ERA against the Sox is just 2.85 and he has 81 strikeouts in 75.2 innings.  AJ Pierzynski (.385, HR), Paul Konerko (.292, 2 HR) and Adam Dunn (.286, 2 HR) have had the most success against him.

Liriano will look to continue his success with the Sox on Saturday.  While he never looks dominant, he has been solid and still has not been beaten since joining the Sox.  He should have a good chance to pitch well against a very aggressive and free swinging Tigers lineup.  Liriano has not started a game against the Tigers this year but has made two relief appearances, one of which did not go well when he gave up 4 runs in 2.2 innings.  His career numbers against the Tigers are not great, 5-6 5.69 ERA with a 1.385 WHIP, although he is striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings.  His Comerica Park ERA is even higher, at 6.13.  Miguel Cabrera (.333 2 HRs), Brennan Boesch (.455) and Jhonny Peralta (.281, 2 HRs) have fared the best against Francisco.  Prince Fielder is just 3-for-18 with 8 strikeouts.

The finale on Sunday will be the marquee matchup and as a result has been moved to Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN2.  The Sox will trot out Chris Sale (15-5, 2.81 ERA) against reigning MVP Justin Verlander (12-7, 2.80 ERA).  Yes, Verlander’s win total is down but don’t let that fool you, he has been as good as anyone on the mound this year. Verlander leads the league in strikeouts (198) and complete games (6).  The good news is he’s coming off his worst start of the year (5.2 innings, 12 hits, 8 runs), but the bad news is that he hasn’t had two bad starts in a row in a long time.

 The Sox have been lucky this year and have only faced Verlander once this year when he beat the Sox giving up 2 runs on 4 hits over 8 innings back in late June at Comerica Park.  Lifetime Verlander has a 4.06 ERA against the Sox but most of that damage was done early in his career.  AJ Pierzynski (.268 3 HRs) has the best career numbers against Verlander while Konerko and Dunn are a combined 11-for-72 (.152) with 25 strikeouts.

For Sale, he will be looking to bounce back as well as he is coming off his shortest start of the season lasting just 4 innings against the Orioles and giving up 4 runs and taking his 5th loss of the year.  His velocity was also down around 90 MPH, causing some people to think it might be time for him to skip another start.

He has not fared well against Detroit this year, losing both his starts and posting an ERA of 6.00.  Looking at the career numbers though, only Jhonny Peralta (3-for-8) has had much success against Sale, although Gerald Laird is randomly 3-for-4 with a homer against the lanky lefty.  Sale has gotten up for big games against big opponents this year; see his start against the Yankees during the last homestand.

Keys to the Series

Into the Tigers Den: The White Sox have won just 4 of the last 19 games they have played at Comerica Park including just 1 of the 6 games this season.  They suffered their first sweep of the year at Comerica about a month ago and relinquished first place.  Once again they head into Detroit after dropping 3 out of 4 games to an AL East team, just like they did back in July.

In addition the Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 road games after being one of the best road teams in baseball throughout the first half of the year.  The Tigers are also 39-26 at home and have won 11 of their last 17 at Comerica.  The Sox need to find a way to start winning on the road if they want to be a legitimate threat to win the division and make some noise in the playoffs.  Winning a series in Detroit is a good way to start.

Which Offense Wakes Up?: Both the Sox and the Tigers are coming into the series with their offenses struggling.  Over the last 12 games the White Sox are hitting .267 as a club.  They have hit 15 home runs in those 12 games but they are also striking out more than 7 times a game.  They are averaging 4.6 runs per game over that stretch but the consistency hasn’t been there.

In the Baltimore series the Sox scored just 6 runs in the 3 games they lost and were shut out once.  The Tigers are hitting .257 over the last 11 games and have hit just 7 home runs.  They are also scoring just 3.45 runs per game over that stretch.  They scored 9 runs in 3 games while being swept in Kansas City but 8 of those runs came in the first game of the series.  Whichever team can get the bats going or even just come up with a few big hits is going to be the team that wins the series.

The Other Guys: The bottom third of the White Sox order has come to life lately and it couldn’t be a better time for it.  Over the last 9 games Gordon Beckham is hitting .355 with a homer, two doubles, and 6 RBI.  Alexei Ramirez is even hotter over the same stretch hitting .424 with 2 homers and 10 knocked in.  Dayan Viciedo is hitting .316 over his last 5 games as well.

If the Sox can count of the bottom of the order to come up with some big hits and get on base and turn the lineup over, it will go a long way in helping this offense be more productive on a consistent basis, especially playing in Comerica Park which isn’t nearly as homer friendly as US Cellular.

Outlook

This is going to be a tough series for the Sox.  They have a lot of things trending against them including their poor record at Comerica Park, their recent road struggles, and their history against the pitchers they are going to face.  If the Sox want to win the Central Division they have to beat the Tigers and if they want any real shot at hosting a potential tiebreaker game at the end of the year, they need to win this series.  I am not sure if I see it happening though.

Comerica Park will be packed and rocking, and the Tigers are a different team at home.  I think the Sox can win two out of three, I just don’t know if they will.  It should be fun though; this is what being in a pennant chase is all about.