Stepping away from the team you love and follow so closely for a bit to check up on their main competition is something that I wish White Sox fans did more of. Not that they are less educated of the other teams in their division than any other fan base, but the only way to be a fully informed fan is to know the rivals inside and out.
Most of the talk you hear about the American League Central division this year has centered around the Detroit Tigers due to the huge hype they had coming in to 2012.

On the other hand, the Cleveland Indians were a team with very low expectations, as a rather quiet offseason didn’t render them a favorite to make a legitimate playoff push. However, they were the first place team in the AL Central through much of the early goings, and despite sitting a handful of games out of the division lead, are still certainly in the mix for a playoff berth.
So, with a couple months left in the regular season, there’s certainly been enough evidence presented to answer the question “contender or pretender?” for the Tribe. Let’s start by dissecting the pitching staff.

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Pitching

Here’s a look at their rotation (unofficial order).

1. Justin Masterson (7-9, 4.47 ERA)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (8-10, 5.08 ERA)
3. Derek Lowe (8-9, 5.09 ERA)
4. Josh Tomlin (5-8, 5.87 ERA)
5. Zach McCallister (4-2, 3.18 ERA)

As you can tell, their starting staff has been rather lackluster. With division rivals Chicago and Detroit both having solid, deep rotations, the Indians put themselves far back of the pack off the bat with this part of their squad. Let’s continue looking at their team, as we stay with the pitchers but move to the bullpen.
The Indians’ bullpen has a 4.10 ERA as a unit, good for 22nd in all of baseball. The Tigers and White Sox are both middle-of-the-pack in this category at 16th and 18th overall, respectively, but are substantially behind those two clubs numbers-wise.
Outside of closer Chris Perez, who is one of the better, more stable finishers in the league, they really don’t have much going on in the ‘pen, both experience and potential-wise.

While their pitching staff renders more question marks and worries than any team would like to have overall, we haven’t even looked at their offense. So, let’s get into that.

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Hitting

Given the Tribe’s team batting average (16th), runs scored (18th), slugging % (21st), and hits (16th), I have them as about the 18th best offense in baseball, A.K.A. a little worse than middle-of-the-pack, once again. And it’s not like these are faulty stats, either. The “eye test” puts them right around that ranking as well, in my opinion. Their lineup is (usually) as follows:

1. Shin Soo Choo
2. Asdrubal Cabrera
3. Jason Kipnis
4. Michael Brantley
5. Travis Hafner
6. Carlos Santana
7. Johnny Damon
8. Casey Kotchman
9. Jose Lopez

Now that was the most accurate lineup I could put together based on the recent ones they’ve used, so I may be off in a spot or two. While at a glance that may not look like too poor of an order, you have to remember that most of these guys are not playing up to their potential or how they did in their prime.
Middle-of-the-pack is not bad, of course; I don’t want to make it sound like I’m saying that this lineup has been anemic; it certainly has been formidable.But their offense is built around Carlos Santana and Travis Hafner being big-time power hitters and raking in lots of runs, and that has not been the case. They’ve only combined for 19 home runs and 70 RBI’s. While injuries have played a role in that, it really doesn’t matter since they have no one else to pick up the slack.
If they hit a hot streak, then their offense can be solid as a whole, but nothing too scary. Also it’s worth noting how lefty-heavy they are, which is something that the White Sox, for one, can combat easily with starters Jose Quintana, Francisco Liriano, and Chris Sale.

After taking a closer look at the team, it’s now time to answer the question of the hour…

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Contender or Pretender?

What you have to remember about this question is that it’s not asking whether or not a team is one of the best in the league and will be able to contend for a title. It’s not even asking if they’re the favorite to win their division. It’s just about whether they’ll be in contention for the long haul or if they’ll soon fade away.
I’ve gone back and forth on this debate as far as the Cleveland Indians go, but through Monday, July 30th’s games, I’m going to have to say that I see them as a pretender.
If you want to win an extremely competitive division in the ultra-competitive American League, you have to have something really going for you. The Indians just don’t have it. Their pitching is definitely sub-par, and their offense is mediocre, at best.
With just two months left, I think most of the wins within the division will go to the Tigers and White Sox, as the race between those two clubs will likely go down to the wire. The Indians took a few steps backward getting swept by the Twins over the weekend, and I think more regression is in their very near future.
General Manager Chris Antonetti has not made any major additions to this point, and I don’t see him doing so before the trade deadline, which is now just several hours away. If they’re sellers then they definitely won’t have enough on their club to stay even remotely close, but let’s say they keep their current club. Even if that’s what happens through August (waiver deadline), I don’t think they’ll be the team atop the AL Central or Wild Card standings come late-September or early-October.
Indians fans shouldn’t be totally discouraged, though, as this wasn’t a year in which they were expected to have much excitement at all. They have, at least, learned more about a lot of their young players going forward, which will make it easier for Antonetti to put a contender on the field in the the coming seasons.

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Posted by GSB! Founder & Managing Editor, Zach Gropper. Go, Go White Sox!