We all know the story of the 2005 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox’ closers. At the beginning of the year, the man was Shingo Takatsu, who was pretty dominant in 2004. But with his ERA more than doubling to 5.97 in ’05, it was clear that he was no longer the guy.
Enter Dustin Hermanson, who was down-right dominant for quite some time in the middle of the season. He saved 34 games for the ball club, but was ultimately taken out of the role when back problems flared up. This left rookie Bobby Jenks, a recent call-up from AA Birmingham as the man on the playoff-caliber team.

Jenks went on to close six games in the later-goings for the south siders, and headed into the playoffs as the team’s closer, which we all know worked out rather well, as he saved out 4 of his 5 opportunities including game 4 of the World Series in Houston, which sealed the series win bringing the first World Series championship to Chicago since 1917.
Fast forward seven years to 2012, as the young, opportunistic, and resilient Sox find themselves in the thick of the AL Central and Wild Card playoff races. While the closer story has not been exactly the same, it has been quite similar in a handful of ways.
The team started off the season with Manager Robin Ventura’s “mystery closer” in Texas, who ultimately went on to be Hector Santiago. At first, the rookie south paw looked very good, but the success didn’t last very long. After a couple blown saves and some uninspiring outings, the team decided to take the closer-pressure off of his shoulders and give the load to Matt Thornton. Like in 2011, this move didn’t work. Ventura labeled it as a “closer-by-committee,” but it was clear that Thornton would be the main guy. With tempers running short in Chicago after those two south paws failed (and a couple days with Chris Sale as the closer), it was clear that change was needed. That change would take form with rookie Addison Reed, who had a phenomenal April, bolstering a 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances.
Say what you may about Bobby Jenks and how he seemed to lose control of himself near the end of his tenure with the Sox, but he was an elite closer for about 4 years with the team. It’s hard to come across those guys, and it’s even more rare to see a a guy blossom and really come into his own during a playoff race and/or in the playoffs. While it’s not yet known if the Sox will make the playoffs in 2012, we do know that they have a very good chance.
Now a few months removed from Addison Reed being labeled the closer, it’s time to compare and contrast his first year to Bobby’s to see if the evidence supports the notion of Reed being the closer of the future or not. So let’s take a look at the numbers …

Jenks’ 05 vs. Reed’s ’12

The first stats you need to get out of the way are the ERA’s. Bobby Jenks threw 39.1 innings in ’05, and so far Reed has tossed 40.0 innings. Jenks had an ERA of 2.75, Reed’s is up at 3.83, so Jenks clearly has the upper hand there. But when you delve into the more revealing numbers, you see two rookie fire-ballers with several similarities.
One of the hot statistics of today is the WHIP or ‘walks + hits per IP.’ One of the main concerns this year about “Advil Addison,” as GSB! has labeled him is that he’s just letting too many base runners get aboard in close games, letting the other teams get within a swing or two of coming back too easily. So, a stat revealing how many base runners he lets on per inning (almost all-inclusively) would be a pretty useful one, right? This year, Reed is holding a 1.25 WHIP, the exact same number that Jenks had in ’05.
Obviously, getting out of those situations when runners are on base is paramount. You can’t just state his WHIP and then not discuss how they do when in those pressure-packed situations.
With runners on, Jenks was better than Reed has been, but Addison’s numbers are still pretty good. Jenks, with any bases occupied had a .227 batting average against him. Reed has a .264 average against with runners on, which is still very respectable. In the most pressure-filled situations, pitching with runner(s) in scoring position, Reed has kept batters to a .233 average while Jenks too had them low at a .245 clip. And when the toughest out to get, the last of the inning is all that’s needed & there’s RISP, Reed has hitters all the way down at .125. As you saw, the numbers get better as the situations get tougher for Reed, which is really what you need from a closer.
But some of you may be asking “why do I care about how well batters are hitting off of these guys?” Well, you need to take into consideration that those are the toughest, most important situations which normally translate to successful later-innings. So while I view those stats to be key for a closer, we still have yet to go over the most important statistic for a closer: SV/SVO.
Jenks was not the closer for too long in 2005 before the playoffs started, but did blow two of his eight opportunities. Reed, on the other hand, has blown three but that’s out of a much larger sample size, as he’s gone 20/23 overall, which is a very good line for even some of the league’s best closers.
So here’s what we have: Jenks surrendered less runs; an ERA over 1.00 run higher for Reed is substantial, but not the most important number to look at. Neither is how they pitched with runners on base and with RISP, where Reed has been a tad bit better, even though those numbers are important. The most vital place to look is the saves, where Reed is off to a great start. Only blowing 3 saves through his first 23 chances is impressive, and helps us answer the question of the hour.

Can Reed be the closer of the future?

The answer to this question is simple: yes. You never know what may happen. Baseball is a business; players can be traded at any given moment, and injuries can derail the most promising of talents. But aside from all those hypotheticals, it seems Reed has what it takes to be the closer of the future.

We all know that Reed has the closer’s mindset; many people surrounding the team have gone on record explaining that. But as we’ve laid out, in case that gut feeling isn’t enough for you, and heck, even if being 20/23 in SVO doesn’t do it for you, there’s many stats that remind us of the last time we had a rookie closer in a playoff race: 2005 … and we all know how that turned out.
So the evidence suggests that Reed can be a high-end closer for the Sox for years to come like Jenks was after his impressive rookie season. All that’s left to see is whether Reed can help write a piece of history like Jenks did not that long ago.