Who would have thought at the start of the season that the White Sox trip to Baltimore in late August would be a matchup between two teams in contention?  Here we are and that is exactly the case as the White Sox sit atop the Central Division and the Orioles are currently in a tie for the 2nd Wild Card spot.  Both teams are playing well and this should be an interesting series.  The Orioles took 3 out of 4 back in mid-April during the White Sox first homestand of the season so the Sox will look to even the score in Baltimore.

Pitching Matchups

The opener on Monday will feature a pair of lefties as Francisco Liriano (5-10, 5.12 ERA) goes against Wei-Yin Chen (12-7, 3.87 ERA).  Chen defeated the White Sox back on April 17th for his first Major League win.  He went 5.1 innings and gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and out dueled John Danks.  Chen has turned out to be the Orioles most consistent starter and has recorded a quality start in 52% of his outings this year.  His August has been up and down as he has an ERA of 5.16 during the month but is 3-1 in his 4 starts.  His last 4 starts he has given up zero runs, 7 runs, 1 run and 5 runs his last time out.
For the Sox, Liriano will look to get his third straight win and build upon the success of his last two starts.  Since joining the White Sox Liriano has been pretty solid with the exception of the start against the A’s where he was roughed up for 6 runs and didn’t make it out of the 4th inning.  In his other four Sox starts Liriano has given up just 7 runs total.  He has struck out 30 batters in 26.2 innings since coming over in the trade but he has also issued 12 walks.  If he can continue to work ahead in the count his chance for success will be much greater.

Francisco faced Baltimore in his first start of the year and got tagged for 6 runs (5 earned) in 4 innings.  In his career Liriano is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA in 6 starts but his ERA in Camden Yards is 6.10 with a WHIP just short of 2.00.  Adam Jones and Nick Markakis each have 4 hits in 12 plate appearances against Liriano and 3 of Jones’ 4 hits left the park.

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Game 2 on Tuesday will matchup Chris Sale (15-4, 2.65 ERA) and Chris Tillman (6-2, 3.71 ERA).  Tillman is a 24-year-old right hander who will be making his 10th start of the year for the O’s.  In his first 9 starts he has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 7 of the 9.  He has had much more success this year than in his previous stints with the Orioles.  He can thank better control for his improved success.  Tillman’s walks per 9 innings are down a full base on balls while his strikeouts per 9 innings are up almost an entire strikeout.  More K’s and less BB’s = lower ERA and more wins.  He has not faced the Sox this season but he has made two career starts against them.  He is 1-1 with an 8.22 ERA in just 7.2 total innings in those two starts.  He allowed 14 hits and issued 5 walks in those 7.2 innings while only recording 3 strikeouts.  Alexei Ramirez is 4-5 with a homer off Tillman and Konerko is 1-2 with a double and 3 walks against him.
Chris Sale is coming off one of his most impressive outings of the year and has leapt into the Cy Young voting after striking out 13 Yankees over 7.2 innings and allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in getting the win and securing the first Sox sweep of the Bronx Bombers in Chicago in 21 years.  It was Sale’s fourth start with double digit strikeouts.  He has not faced the Orioles as a starter yet and has just 5.1 innings against the O’s for his career.  In those 5.1 innings he has allowed 3 runs on 6 hits with 5 walks and 5 strikeouts.  Nick Markakis (1-2, 1BB) and Matt Wieters (1-3, double) are the only current Orioles with hits off Sale.

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The White Sox have shuffled the pitching rotation and Jake Peavy, who was originally scheduled to start on Wednesday, will now be pushed back to Friday in Detroit.  The Sox will now pitch a combo of Phil Humber (5-5, 5.93 ERA) and Hector Santiago (2-1, 3.99 ERA) against Miguel Gonzalez (5-3, 3.81 ERA).
This will be the first look the Sox get at Miguel Gonzalez who will be making his 10th start of the year.  He also pitched in three relief appearances before moving into the starting rotation.  Gonzalez has been fairly solid for the O’s and has been pretty good in August sporting a 2.42 ERA and a 2-1 mark in 4 starts.  He has also allowed just one home run in those 4 starts, covering 26 innings of work.  His ERA in Camden Yards is almost 2 runs higher (4.73) than his road ERA (2.95) and opponents are hitting .287 off him at home as opposed to just .221 on the road.
Humber hasn’t started a game since August 3rd when he was lit up by the Angels giving up 6 runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings.  He also walked 4 batters with just one strikeout and gave up 2 home runs.  Since then he has made 6 appearances pitching out of the bullpen.  He has done pretty well and has a 3.52 ERA over 7.2 innings and has struck out 10 while walking four and allowing just 4 hits, however two of those hits were home runs.
Humber made his first start of the year against the Orioles back in mid-April and gave up just 1 run on 6 hits over 5.1 innings.  Lifetime against Baltimore Humber is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 7 games (3 starts).  Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Robert Andino and JJ Hardy all have a home run off Humber and current O’s batters are hitting a combined .340 and have an OPS over 1.000.
Hector Santiago has come in early in each of Gavin Floyds last two starts and has given up 5 runs over 7 innings but kept the Sox in the game and gave them a chance to win it late, which they did both times.  Santiago made 1 relief appearance against Baltimore back in April and blew a save, giving up 2 home runs in 1 inning of work.  If Santiago starts then the White Sox will start a left hander in all 4 games of the series.

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Thursday’s finale currently has Jose Quintana (5-2, 2.86 ERA) pitching for the White Sox and the Orioles have yet to name a starter.  Quintana was OK on Saturday.  He was roughed up for 3 runs in the first inning but then settled down and didn’t allow another run before departing with 2 outs in the 6th.  Quintana has been solid since getting some extended rest and has really helped stabilize the Sox rotation.  Thursday will be Quintana’s first career start against the Orioles.

Keys to the Series

Powerful ‘Pen: The Orioles bullpen has been one of the best in the American League this year.  The pen boasts a 21-10 record and a 3.05 combined ERA.  They have also converted 43 saves, 39 of which belong to Jim Johnson, who is tied for the Major League lead with Fernando Rodney.  Pedro Strop has a miniscule 1.43 ERA as the setup man for Johnson.  The success of the bullpen has made up for the Orioles mediocre starting pitching which has a combined ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.38 while compiling a 48-47 record.  It has also helped the O’s to win close games and make up for the fact that they have given up 46 more runs than they have scored.
They are the only American League team with a winning record that has a negative run differential.  The Indians were pulling off the same trick for most of the season but it caught up with them and they fell out of contention.  The same thing could happen to the O’s in the next week or two.
Resilient Sox: The Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games in which they have allowed a run in the first inning, including 5 of the 6 games on the recently concluded homestand.  That means that the Sox went down early but were able to come back and win anyway. Even more amazingly, the Sox have 71 wins this season and 36 of them have been of the come-from-behind variety.

While the 9-2 record shows that the Sox feel they are never out of a game, it is probably not something you want to continue to do, especially after we’ve established how good Baltimore’s bullpen is.  It would behoove the Sox to get ahead early against the Orioles starters, rather than waiting for late inning heroics.  But as we have said throughout this season, this team never gives up and now I think we are just starting to expect that they can come back whenever they want to.
Trap Game (Series):  In my Mariners preview I said that the Sox needed to avoid a letdown after the big sweep against the Yankees.  Well, they managed to sweep the Mariners as well and as I hoped, they’ve now got a little bit of a winning streak going.  Now they need to make sure to focus on the task at hand and not look ahead to the series at the end of the week against the Tigers in Detroit.  I know that many Sox fans are already looking ahead to that series but the team cannot afford to do that or they will leave Baltimore the same way they left Kansas City and possibly in 2nd Place.  Keep playing well and take care of business, AND THEN gear up for the Detroit series.

Outlook

Baltimore is a tough team; they can swing the bats pretty well and have a good bullpen and they find themselves in the race this late in the season for the first time since the late 90’s.  They are however, a flawed team.  Their run differential shows you that much.
The Sox are throwing all their top pitchers in this series and there is no reason not to expect them to take 3 of 4, but I think a split is entirely possible.  Really I am just wondering when the other shoe is going to drop because they got a little lucky over the weekend.  You know what they say though, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.  I think the Sox are both, and Orioles might just be lucky.

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Posted by GSB! Contributor, Matt Hoeppner.