Baseball doesn’t make any sense.  That is the only logical conclusion I can come up with.  You can think you have it all figured out, looking at the numbers and the matchups, and you think you know what to expect.
Then the White Sox go out and get swept by the Royals and follow it up by sweeping the Yankees at home for the first time since I was 9 years old.  What?!  That’s why you play the games on the field and not in a computer.  Bottom line is the Sox are 3-0 on the current homestand and welcome in the red hot Seattle Mariners this weekend.  Yup, you read that right, red hot Seattle.
The M’s come in winners of 8 straight, even though the last six were against the Twins and Indians, they still count the same.  Seattle just finished an 8-1 homestand and allowed just 13 runs in those last 8 games, which included Felix Hernandez’s perfect game.  Good news for the White Sox is that they will not see King Felix in this series.  Who will they see?  Let’s take a look …

Pitching Matchups

Game one on Friday could be quite the pitcher’s duel as the Sox send their right handed workhorse Jake Peavy (9-9, 3.11 ERA) to the mound against Seattle lefty Jason Vargas (13-8, 3.53 ERA).  Vargas’ name came up a little around the trade deadline as an option for a team looking for a middle of the rotation pitcher but the Mariners decided to hold onto the talented lefty who is starting to come into his own.  Vargas has been very good in the 2nd half of the season, in his last 7 starts he is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10.  Opponents are hitting just .230 off of him over that stretch and he has allowed just 3 home runs after giving up 23 big flies through his first 19 starts.
Vargas has pitched much better at home in the spacious hitter’s park of Safeco Field than he has on the road.  His ERA is 1.26 higher on the road than at home and he has served up 20 of the 26 home runs he’s allowed away from Seattle.  The Sox have not seen Vargas yet this year but in his career Vargas is 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA in 5 games (4 starts).  Paul Konerko has had the most success off Vargas as he is hitting .545 (6-11), with a home run and two doubles.  Alexei Ramirez (.385) and Gordon Beckham (.455) also have had success and have taken Vargas deep.  Even Brett Myers is 1-1 career off Jason Vargas.  On the whole current Sox batters are hitting .394 with 5 home runs and 4 doubles off the Mariner lefty.

For the Sox, Jake Peavy is looking to bounce back from a tough start against Kansas City.  He allowed 5 runs (3 earned) and lasted just 5.1 innings and took the loss against the Royals.  Jake has been a workhorse for the Sox, throwing more than 100 pitches in each of his last 11 starts and throwing 120 pitches or more in 5 of them.  He has shown no sign of slowing down though and still has one of the top ERA’s in the American League at 3.11.
Peavy has faced the Mariners once this season, back on June 1st.  In that game he pitched 6.1 innings allowing 2 runs on 3 hits with 4 strikeouts and 3 walks.  He did not figure in the decision as the Sox won 7-4.  Peavy has enjoyed quite a bit of success against Seattle in his career.  He is 5-1 with a 2.21 ERA in 8 starts lifetime against the M’s.  Miguel Olivo (3-10, HR) and Dustin Ackley (2-4, 2BBs) have had the most success against Peavy.  Current Mariners batters are hitting .234 with a pair of home runs against the Jakemeister.

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In game two of the series the White Sox will send Jose Quintana (5-2, 2.76 ERA) to the bump against Blake Beavan (8-7, 5.00 ERA).  The young 23 year old right handed Beavan has had an up and down year in his 2nd season in the Majors, however since returning to the rotation in mid-July Beavan is 5-1 with a respectable 3.74 ERA.  He has struck out 27 batters and walked just 3 in 45.2 innings.  If you go up to the plate looking for a walk against him, you aren’t likely to get it.  Like Vargas, Beavan’s ERA is more than a full run higher on the road than at home.  Beavan made one start against the Sox earlier this year and took a tough luck loss.  His pitching line was solid; 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 K, 1 BB.  That is the only time he has faced the Sox to date.  Konerko went 2-3 with a homer in the game back in April.
The Sox counter with their own 23-year-old pitcher, Jose Quintana.  In what is becoming the theme of his rookie season Quintana is coming off a good performance in which he got no run support.  At least this time he didn’t take the loss as he went 7 innings allowing 2 runs on 9 hits while striking out 5 and walking 4.  Quintana continues to impress and seems to find ways to minimize the damage when he gets into trouble.  He has allowed 2 runs in each of his last 3 starts since getting his extended rest.  His only appearance against Seattle was a relief appearance back on June 2nd.  He got the final two outs of a White Sox 8-10 extra inning loss at US Cellular Field.

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The finale of the three game series and six game homestand will feature Gavin Floyd (9-9, 4.56 ERA) taking on veteran right hander Kevin Millwood (4-10, 4.29 ERA).  Millwood is many years removed from his glory days with the Atlanta Braves, but the 37 year old can still navigate his way through a lineup.  He has had a tough time in the 2nd half of the year as he is just 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and opponents are hitting .323 off him.  Like the other Mariners pitchers he isn’t going to overpower you, but he isn’t going to walk you either.  He’s issued only 47 free passes in 138.1 innings.
The Sox have seen Millwood twice this year and beaten him both times scoring 9 runs in 15 innings while hitting .375.  Lifetime Millwood is 1-7 against the Sox but with a respectable 3.82 ERA in 13 starts, however at the Cell Millwood’s career ERA is 4.85.  Konerko (.367), Dunn (.409 6 HRs) and Rios (.375, HR) have all had success against Millwood, while AJ (5-25) and Beckham (1-6) have struggled off the veteran righty.

Gavin Floyd is coming off his shortest outing of the season lasting just 2.1 innings and allowing 3 runs on 5 hits with 4 walks against the Yankees.  The decision to pull Floyd early paid off for the Sox as Hector Santiago was able to hold the Yankees at bay and the Sox got back into the game, eventually winning it 9-6.
Floyd continues to confound and infuriate Sox fans with his inconsistent play.  He had a very Floyd-esque performance against the Mariners back in June, going 5 innings giving up 5 runs on 9 hits and FOUR home runs.  Lifetime against the Mariners Floyd is 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA in 15 games (13 starts), however no current Mariner batter is hitting better than .333 (Michael Saunders) against him.  Justin Smoak has two homers off Floyd but only 4 hits in 19 at bats.  Saunders and Chone Figgins have also taken Gavin deep.  As a whole, current Mariners are hitting just .189 off Floyd.

Keys to the Series

Dominance over M’s: The White Sox are 5-1 against the Mariners this season and since the start of the 2010 season the Sox are 21-3 (.875) against the M’s.  Seattle has not been very good over that time and the White Sox have been able to take advantage.  They need to continue this trend this weekend.  The Mariners are not a great offensive club and the Sox pitching has been pretty good lately. They should be able to hold them down and score enough runs to win, especially considering that the Mariners starters give up more than a run per game more on the road than at home.
Going Deep: I know I have continued to highlight the White Sox home run hitting as both the key and possible downfall of the offense.  I am not sure if they can continue to rely on the home run for the rest of the season but for right now it’s working just fine.
The Sox have hit 27 home runs in the last 14 days and 38 homers in the month of August.  Everyone has gotten involved lately and with the exception of the series in KC the Sox offense has been clicking.  I expect the Sox to continue to hit the ball out of the park, at least through this series to wrap up the homestand.
Several of the Sox hitters have had success going yard against the pitchers they are going to face so if you are going to the Cell this weekend (and you should!) I would expect to see a lot of fireworks.
Build the ‘Mo: Before the series with KC I said the Sox needed to build on the momentum they got from taking 3 of 4 in Toronto, a place that they had struggled for years.  Obviously they were unable to do that as the curse of Kansas City jumped up and bit them and they were swept.
Ever resilient, the Sox came home and swept the hated Yankees in Chicago for the first time in 21 years.  They need to build off that and not have a letdown like they had in KC.  Looming next weekend is a critical series against the Tigers in Detroit and it is important for the Sox to be playing good baseball heading into that series.  With the Mariners, a team the Sox have dominated, coming to town after the sweep of the Yankees this is the perfect time to get an extended winning streak going before heading out on the road to face two teams in the playoff hunt.

Outlook

In all series not involving the Royals I have felt pretty good about my predictions and this one is no different.  Even though the Mariners come in winners of 8 straight I just do not think they match up well against the Sox.  King Felix isn’t pitching in the series and the Sox are playing pretty good themselves.

Anything less than winning 2 out of 3 is unacceptable and a sweep is certainly not unthinkable.  This is a last place team that you have dominated and you are playing them at home, take care of business and head out to Baltimore riding high.